市场
Market studies
For each of our four theses, a synthesis built exclusively from publications by BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Every figure links to its source. Where a house has published no quantified study on a sector, we say so.
01 / 04 — 基础设施、智能体与垂直应用
人工智能
All four houses converge: AI has entered an unprecedented infrastructure build-out (around $1 trillion of global investment in 2026 according to Goldman Sachs), whose return on investment remains the central debate. BlackRock describes three phases (build-out, adoption, transformation); J.P. Morgan notes that AI capex still weighs less on GDP than the telecom or shale cycles did.
Key figures
1,05 % du PIB
AI capex weight, vs 2.67% for telecoms in 2000 and 4.75% for shale
JPMJ.P. Morgan2025年9月Publications reviewed
- GSGoldman SachsPublished 2026年8月7日
Global AI Investment Is Forecast to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2026
- AI would account for 1.8% of US GDP in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, 2.8% in 2028; past technology cycles peaked at 2–5% of GDP.
- Consensus 2026 capex for US hyperscalers is about $800 billion.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2024年8月5日
Will the $1 trillion of generative AI investment pay off?
- Return on investment is 'the center of all debate'; innovation will come from specialised vertical models rather than infrastructure alone.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2025年7月23日
As AI Proliferates, What Comes Next?
- Addressable market framed against the $40 trillion global labour market; each compute cycle is roughly ten times the previous one.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2025
Bridging a $1.5tr Data Center Financing Gap
- Credit and private markets will need to bridge an estimated $1.5 trillion data-center financing gap.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2024年11月21日
Digital disruption and artificial intelligence (BlackRock Investment Institute)
- Three phases: build-out, adoption, transformation. Private markets are seen as key to financing infrastructure and spotting winners before IPO.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2025年9月26日
4 Trends We're Watching In the Artificial Intelligence Investing Space
- P/E of large AI names around 30 vs over 60 at the 2000 peak; strong hyperscaler balance sheets (Oracle excepted).
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What NEXT Capital takes from it
NEXT Capital favours BlackRock's phase 2: vertical applications and enterprise agents, where Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect value creation, rather than infrastructure already funded by hyperscalers.
02 / 04 — 下一个十年的计算
量子
All four houses treat quantum as a long-horizon, high-disruption theme. J.P. Morgan documents a sharp acceleration of venture funding (investment up seventeenfold in ten years); Morgan Stanley tracks error-correction progress; BlackRock analyses the cryptographic threat and launched a dedicated ETF; Goldman Sachs looks at the Europe–US–China race. None publishes a firm market size: practical quantum advantage remains 'years away'.
Key figures
2,8 Md$ + 1,6 Md$
raised by US and non-US quantum start-ups through Q3 2025, a record year
JPMJ.P. Morgan2025年11月> 1 Md$ / an
US federal R&D budgets for quantum information science (FY2022–FY2025)
JPMJ.P. Morgan2025年11月3 sur 5
executives whose company explores quantum, notably 'quantum AI' (SAS survey, May 2025)
JPMJ.P. Morgan2025年11月Publications reviewed
- JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2025年11月7日
The second quantum revolution: Unlocking transformative potential
- Current use cases: portfolio optimisation via quantum annealing, chemistry simulation, random-number generation, quantum key distribution; future: large-scale optimisation, post-quantum cryptography, sensing.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2026年3月6日
What is quantum computing? (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
- Practical advantage over classical computing is 'years away'; quantum venture capital requires longer investment horizons.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2026年9月29日
Quantum Computing Revisited (Counterpoint Global)
- Larger error-correction systems make quantum information more reliable; logical qubits and logical error rates are the right progress metrics. Scaling and cost-justifying applications remain open.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2026年7月31日
Quantum Computing and Blockchains
- Recent advances have shortened the horizon of a threat to public-key cryptography; post-quantum standards already exist and the industry is moving from research to implementation.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2026
iShares Quantum Computing UCITS ETF
- BlackRock has opened a listed exposure dedicated to quantum, a sign the theme is now investable for institutional allocators.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2023年3月31日
Can Europe beat China and the US in quantum computing?
- Qualitative analysis of the race between blocs; Europe has scientific strengths but must accelerate industrialisation.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗
What NEXT Capital takes from it
The fund's longest thesis (7 to 10 years), consistent with the horizons described by J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. NEXT Capital targets the building blocks that create value before the universal computer: error correction, cryogenic electronics, software and sensing.
03 / 04 — 吃得更好，生产方式不同
农业食品
Morgan Stanley sizes alternative proteins ($150 billion by 2030) and precision fermentation (at least $30 billion in 2030, up to $120 billion in the bull case). J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs document food-price volatility and fertiliser dependence; BlackRock recalls that more food must be produced in the next forty years than in the past eight thousand. A resilient sector under strain, where technology creates the next leaders.
Key figures
+30 à 40 %
surge in global food prices in 2022; US consumer food prices +20%, with no reversal
JPMJ.P. Morgan2024年5月~20 %
share of fertiliser in grain costs; over a quarter of global nitrogen-fertiliser trade transits Hormuz
GSGoldman Sachs2026年4月40 ans vs 8 000
more food must be produced in the next 40 years than in the past 8,000
BLKBlackRock2023年4月Publications reviewed
- MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2025年4月25日
Can Fermentation Unlock the Future of Food?
- Two phases: 2025–2027 (whey proteins, animal nutrition) then 2028–2030 (egg, meat and dairy substitutes); about $22bn then $78bn of investment required.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2023年5月3日
Why Sustainable Food Is Poised for Primetime
- Alternative proteins could reach $150 billion by 2030 with about 20% annual growth.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2024年5月15日
Animal Farm (Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest)
- Food-retail margins at their highest since 2000 (about 7%); US farmland valued at $3.5 trillion, about 4% held by non-family investors.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2026年1月16日
Climate Intuition: Food security, the fates of farming and food in a warming world
- Qualitative analysis of climate effects on production, soils and agricultural trade.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2026年4月1日
How the Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Could Affect Global Agriculture Prices
- Nitrogen fertilisers are about 60% of global fertiliser use; a supply disruption feeds into grain prices with roughly a one-month lag.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2023年4月
How resilient is the food supply in times of crisis? (Ideas Exchange)
- The war in Ukraine affected 6% of the world's direct food supply; food-chain resilience becomes an allocation topic.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗
What NEXT Capital takes from it
NEXT Capital targets the segments sized by Morgan Stanley (proteins, fermentation) and the answers to the strains documented by J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs: precision agriculture, input reduction, traceability.
04 / 04 — 表现、数据与体验
体育
Sport has become an asset class. Morgan Stanley values the global market at $521 billion in 2024, with $130 billion of additional revenue possible through technology. Goldman Sachs documents cumulative returns of US leagues above 1,000% since 2001; J.P. Morgan puts the four major US leagues at close to $500 billion and notes private equity now sits in one team in five. BlackRock has published no dedicated sector study in our sources.
Key figures
+130 Md$
additional annual revenue (+25%) unlocked by technology adoption incl. AI: ticketing +21%, media +36%, engagement +23%
MSMorgan Stanley2025年8月+1 917 %
cumulative return of NBA franchises since 2001 (14% CAGR); NFL +1,130%, top-10 European clubs +483%
GSGoldman Sachs2024~500 Md$
combined valuation of the four major US leagues' teams; an NFL team is worth about $7bn
JPMJ.P. Morgan2025年10月Publications reviewed
- MSMorgan StanleyPublished 2025年8月22日
The Sports Industry's $130 Billion Ticket
- Only 30% of sports businesses use technology to personalise marketing, vs 92% in retail; ticketing is close to half of revenue.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2024
Changing the Game: Unlocking New Opportunities in Sports
- NFL media rights: $402m per team in 2023–24 vs $180m in 2012; US online sports betting from $6.5bn (2022) to $20.7bn expected in 2027; sports market estimated at $630bn–1tn.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - GSGoldman SachsPublished 2026年2月5日
What's the Lifetime Value of a Fan?
- Sport is described as an asset class in its own right; the direct fan relationship and lifetime fan value become the key metrics.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2025年10月15日
What is behind the growth of private equity in sports? (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
- Cumulative returns of the four leagues above the S&P 500 since 2014; 80 of the 100 most-watched broadcasts of 2024 were sports events.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - JPMJ.P. MorganPublished 2024年6月6日
A Piece of the Action (Eye on the Market)
- Controlling stakes in US franchises are worth $1–10 billion; four of five leagues have opened their capital to private equity.
Quantified studyRead the publication ↗ - BLKBlackRockPublished 2026年10月
Aucune étude sectorielle dédiée identifiée
- BlackRock addresses sport through its private-markets and private-credit platforms, with no dedicated thematic publication in our sources as of 16/10/2026.
Qualitative analysisRead the publication ↗
What NEXT Capital takes from it
Franchises are now beyond the fund's ticket sizes; NEXT Capital targets what Morgan Stanley identifies as the $130 billion pool: data, smart ticketing, media and experience, athlete health.
Synthesis prepared by NEXT Capital on 16 October 2026 from public publications of the institutions cited. These institutions are neither partners nor affiliates of NEXT Capital and have not endorsed this content. Figures are reproduced as published; they are neither a NEXT Capital forecast nor a guarantee of performance.
Multiples and horizons shown are non-contractual targets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.